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Foundational Concept

Actuarial Risk Assessment

Also Known As Actuarial Risk Assessment Instrument (ARAI)
Measurement, Risk and Offending Patterns

Statistical tools used in sentencing and parole decisions to predict a defendant's likelihood of reoffending from static and dynamic factors; the software COMPAS is a widely used example, and a 2016 ProPublica investigation found it flagged Black defendants as higher risk at a disproportionate rate, sparking an ongoing fairness debate that such tools cannot satisfy every definition of fairness at once. This description is adapted from Wikipedia contributors under CC BY-SA 4.0; changes were made. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

Facts
DomainSourced to the subject's own account
Sentencing, parole and corrections 1
Connections

Associated With

Source Wikipedia: COMPAS (software)

Informed By

John Monahan led the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study, foundational research underlying modern actuarial and structured violence-risk-assessment methodology in forensic practice.

Sources
1. Wikipedia: COMPAS (software)
  • Accuracy section
    both statements are true: they refer to two mutually exclusive definitions of fairness
  • Associated With: Recidivism, Opening paragraph
    used by U.S. courts to assess the likelihood of a defendant becoming a recidivist
View the Source
National Institute of Justice: Forensic Sciences
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